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SEQUENTIAL TRADING
There are two types of traders,
discretionary and systematic both with the same purpose of making
money in the markets. One will use their own methodology and money
management techniques too provide a ‘model of expectation’ whilst the
systematic trader doesn’t concern himself with the direction of the
market, when his or her system provides a signal they trade it!
So what trader are you?
AMT provides the necessary tools in identifying the cycles in the
market, from the Primary trends that Dow and Elliot spoke about, to
the intra-day cycles that most short term traders look for. AMT
provides an extensive look at three period cycles; this
has to be one of the most powerful things for any trader to know.
AMT also takes a close look at Market profile but instead of using
Price as the ‘value’ area, AMT uses TIME to provide the necessary
information of Value, as Time is the only thing in the market that is
forecastable. AMT provides the perfect tools for the non-linear market
environment and also shows why human sentiment that used to be the
driving force behind the market is now replaced by computer generated
systems.
For any Derivative trader, knowing when to fade the open from extreme
of ranges back to central points is just as important as trading with
the trend. The dynamic nature of the markets using TIME will be the
only tool that will allow you to do this!
AMT also provides a detail analysis using sequential data based on the
open of the trading day in relation to the past 5-day of trading. This
allows derivatives traders to shift the odds of the trading day and
provide a high accurate analysis how the day will unfold. This ‘window
into the future’ has been developed by the AM-Trade Group and is
called the ‘Single Day Cycle’.
The SDC is unique to AM-Trade Group subscribers and will not be found
anywhere else! (See below ‘sequential trading’ for examples of the
SDC).
Sequential Data and the Single-Cycle Day (SDC).
If these non-linear derivative markets are being organised to function
properly through the use of computer generated systems then
statistically you would think that they would behave in an orderly
manner and more importantly, there would be statistical and repeatable
patterns occurring all the time within the market structure.
Sequential analysis is well suited for day trading because an
expected scenario is implied. Most sequential analysis is based on
the open-close relationship of past data and how we trade based on the
open auction to the previous day or sets of days.
The idea of using sequential data is to find the probability of
opening and closing price action within the current days trading. So
for any day trader thinking of trading an open position, the
statistics behind the probable action based on the past data would be
a tremendous advantage to say the least. If we knew in advance that
today would behave in a certain manner then all we have to do is
change our discretionary approach to a more systematic approach.
AMT provides the necessary tools and statistical information based on
24 different set-ups, this provides us with each unique SDC and the
‘window into the future’ when day-trading derivative markets.
* Examples of sequential set-ups.
V Set-up. Opens below range. Daily 50% is in between 3 day over
5-day balance
The V Set-up is the set-up that occurs the most frequent of all the
‘in-between cycles’ and occurs at the bottom range of the 5-day cycle.
Statistically, the V set-up will be a buy day; rising from the 3-day
dynamic lows, where the up-move could be a slow rise into the previous
days lows and then move higher in late trading.
Daily charts of the
Australian futures index (SPI) 2002-2003
Sequential trading is intuitive trading in a nutshell. Intuitive
trading is pre-empting the market action, knowing before the outcome
whether the odds of this trade will be profitable or not, whilst most
price based systems that are systematic in approach are still trading
without any probable outcome. A trader using sequential data must
perceive the correct conclusion; each set-up works if and only if the
trader trades the forecastability of that particular set-up.
Five days using ‘Single Day cycle’.
Edited posts before each opening
of the trading day from 3rd to 9th July 2003.
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AMTrade_Group
Australia
130 Posts
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Posted - 07/03/2003: 08:47:29
SPI 3rd July 2003.
Today looks like it will be opening above the
daily pivot highs, the set-up is a U set-up, and looking
at statistical data today could end up closing lower
than the open.
A failure of 3058 and move back under 3051 and we
have the daily 50% level as our
Lower reference.
AMTRADE GROUP.
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#1. The chart on the left shows before the market open and the
chart on the right shows the close of the day, the day followed the
SDC probability of closing lower.
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AMTrade_Group
Australia
130 Posts
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Posted
- 07/04/2003: 07:16:27
SPI 4th July 2003
Today’s opening 30 minutes should give us an idea how our market
will be trading as an open under the daily lows put the market
under pressure.
An open below the daily lows is an M set-up, something that isn’t
bullish.
Trend will be defined by 3038, using this M set-up I’ll be looking
for any trend squeezes around 2.50pm.
AMTRADE GROUP.
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#2 The chart on the left shows the
daily pre market open, and the chart on the right shows in the
50-minute intra-day chart and what actually occurs during the day; the
market opened lower below 3038 and was under pressure for most of the
trading day until 2.50pm where price rallied from the 2.50pm lows
reversing the entire trading day.
AMT using SDC predetermined the entire trading day before the market
had opened.
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AMTrade_Group
Australia
130 Posts
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Posted
- 07/05/2003: 08:30:04
SPI 7th July 2003.
The C set-up usually sorts itself out within the first 50-minutes
whether it is a trending day down, or a rotation day within its
own daily pivot ranges, keeping in mind the weekly 50% level of
3031.
Stats on the day-type are 50%, so I have no
Statistical-bias for the trading day.
AMTRADE GROUP.
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#3 Below shows the pre market open
and the chart on the right (50minute charts) shows the how the day
unfolded, we can see a 50 minute rally and then rotation back towards
the central zones of 3031. This scenario was once again pre-determined
before the market opened.
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AMTrade_Group
Australia
130 Posts
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Posted
- 07/08/2003: 07:03:42
SPI 8th July 2003.
T set-up is a rare sequential set-up but can have a
bias to move back towards the central zones from a
higher open, this set-up has a bias to close either way so
the last 100 minutes of trading will be something to look for.
AMTRADE GROUP.
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#4. Shows the actually trading day
of the daily charts and also the 50-minute intra-day
Charts; we can see that it was a large down-day selling back to the
central zones, and also another ‘sell’ from the last 100 minutes of
trading from 2.50pm into the close.
We had pre-determined that we were not going to be trading any long
positions and there would be another possible trade from 2.50pm.
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AMTrade_Group
Australia
130 Posts
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Posted
- 07/09/2003: 07:38:48 SPI
9th July 2003
Today is a D set-up, statistically a
(rotation) down day, with a 2.50pm reversal ‘buy’
Cycle.
AMTRADE GROUP.
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#5 Lastly we have a D set-up where
the bias is for the trading day to be a rotation to the downside with
a 2-50pm reversal, we can see that the market had remained subdued for
most of the trading day before we see another 2.50pm reversal back
towards the central zones once again.
Sequential trading
is the route to successful trading, as it is part of the game plan and
allows the trader to approach trading systematically and therefore a
trading plan that they can stick to. If one set-up has a high probable
outcome then success can be ensured if the trader follows it, and
along with the use of TIME & 3-day cycles, the Day-trader has turned a 50% probable outcome that many believe only
exists in the marketplace to an edge with a tremendous advantage.
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